By Dilan Minutello
Tanzania houses within its borders the city of Arusha, the capital of the newly proposed East African Federation (EAF). The EAF would be Africa’s second political union in modern history and the greatest border change on the planet since the fall of the Soviet Union. Such a drastic upheaval of the political status quo in Africa holds the potential to shift the power dynamics of the region and the world for decades to come.
The East African Federation is the proposed unification of six countries—Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan—into one national government, and is seen as the successor to the East African Community (EAC). The EAC is a current monetary and economic union between the six countries that was refounded in 2000. The community has grown in the past decade to have a significant impact on the politics and economics of the region, with the overarching goal of establishing the East African Federation. Its customs union and common market allow for the free flow of labor, capital, and goods between member countries. The EAC negotiates with trade partners and external bodies on behalf of its member states and maintains a common external tariff on imports from outside countries. Action to fully transform and formalize the EAC into the EAF is currently underway. In 2018, a committee was formed to begin drafting a constitution, which was intended to be implemented in 2023.
Most notably, the ratification of the EAF would increase economic integration and political stability. As citizens, businesses, and capital become more integrated into the new state, internal investment and competition within the market is expected to increase significantly. Yet the benefits of the Federation’s formation must also be considered with context. Rwanda, Kenya, South Sudan, Burundi, Uganda, and Tanzania are already closely connected economies. Thus, the political federation would be a consequential change, but not a fundamental one.
In any case, the proposed nation would undoubtedly change the status quo of African politics and potentially usher in a new age of economic development for the community. If the EAF’s constitution were to be ratified, the new state would cover 2.5 million square kilometers, making it the tenth-largest country in the world and the largest country in Africa. The Federation would contain 195 million people, the eighth-most populous region in the world and second most in Africa, with an incredibly young median age of 17.8 years. The EAF’s population growth is also remarkably high, estimated between 5-8%. An economy of that size would astronomically increase the EAF’s political and economic influence on the rest of Africa.
However, all of the perceived benefits of this union depends on the composition of the federal government. The nation’s constitution has yet to be completed, and even when it is, the image of what the country will look like after implementation is unclear. The current treaty for the establishment of the East African Community is subordinate to the constitutions of its member states. The East African Federation will define one president with power that will supersede each member state.
After the federation is established and has time to legitimize and develop, it could become an international force, attracting significant foreign investment (besides the current levels of essential aid and Chinese infrastructure support). Looking farther, the EAF could foster relationships with smaller African states and gain influence in exchange for protection and support. Later, adding new member states would be possible if the EAF proves to be successful for the six states in the region. Significant to the EAF’s success is the level of cultural cohesion in the state. The question as to whether the East African community can cope with their loss of sovereignty and move towards an assimilated identity is yet to be answered.
Questions of cultural identity are not new to the EAF’s member states. The original East African Community disbanded in 1977 due to ideological differences between Kenya and Tanzania. After independence from the British, both countries were shaped by despots, with Kenya maintaining a market-friendly structure and Tanzania governing under the principles of Ujamaa, a socialist set of policies for economic and political development. Conflicts between other member states have been constant during the past decades. Consequently, deferral of power may pose problems for the leaders of all six states.
The regional identities in East Africa may also not be similar enough to alleviate concerns regarding the lifespan of any federal, pan-national future state such as the EAF. The nations in play had their borders drawn by European colonial powers 100-200 years ago. Yet unlike
Europe, where regions have had a thousand years to develop their distinct language and culture, East Africa has only had around 60 years to grow independently. The region, made up of dozens to hundreds of ethic groups, is a mosaic of language and culture. Bloodshed in Rwanda reminds the world that culture is fundamental to state success.
In many ways—and through multiple incarnations of the East African Community—the EAF is the final attempt at regional reshuffling through unionization. For success to be possible, it is paramount that corruption and senseless policymaking, which have plagued regional politics for decades, be gone from East Africa. The new government must also be transparent and open to multinational ventures with the United Nations and the World Bank. The EAF may also choose to rely on Chinese capital, which has flooded the region in the past decade.
A young United States of America also faced the problem of previously sovereign member states not wanting to yield power to a central authority. The Articles of Confederation, the first legal text that bound the thirteen constituent states to one another, failed after six years in practice due to insignificance. The legislation was drafted during the American Revolutionary War when anti-monarchical and centralized power sentiment was high. The early United States of America suffered from an inept federal government because the Articles were drafted to keep it as weak as possible to maintain the hegemony of the states. The “United States of East Africa” must avoid this problem if success is to be achieved. The only way the United States continued was when the constitution was promulgated in 1789. The founding fathers, figures who held power during the revolution rejoined and rewrote the laws of the state. The EAF may not get a second chance. For success to be possible, the union between member states must be friendly and stable. If not, fear and competition will destroy the federation in its infancy.